Can't Miss Race of 2011 - Men's 200 IM

By Mike Gufstoson - USA Swimming.org


On pool decks throughout the 2011 swim season, crowds gathered, cameras pointed, Sharpies and kickboards and caps in-hand, smiles abundant. “Ryan, I love you!” screams one bubbly, pony-tailed 13-year-old girl from the stands. Listen close before Ryan Lochte dives into the water, donning his patented pink or sky-blue swim brief, and one can hear gleeful cries, the declarations of adoration -- as if Ryan Lochte were a second-coming of Paul McCartney. 

Which is remarkable since, relatively speaking, Lochte’s Olympic accomplishments pale in comparison to his Team USA brethren. 

It’s true. The Florida native, cool and whimsical like an ocean breeze, Ryan Lochte has “only” one individual Olympic gold medal -- the 200m backstroke. Scanning the World Championships Team USA roster, at least by Olympic pedigree, Ryan Lochte should not be as popular as he is. He has eight individual Olympic gold medals LESS than his teammate Michael Phelps. Comparing the two on paper is like comparing Michael Jordan to Dwayne Wade. 

Which is why this meet starting Sunday is so vital for Ryan Lochte. 

Few times in an athlete’s career are monumental stepping stones -- important, giant, momentous leaps from one plateau to another. When the basketball is placed in an athlete’s hands at the last seconds, and the coach says, “Make this shot.” Or when time has expired, and the receiver is sprinting down the sidelines, the football in the air, and a last-second touchdown catch is not just hopeful, but necessary. “Legends rise to the occasion,” the saying goes, and next week’s upcoming 200IM is Ryan Lochte’s potential occasion, the first step, if he wants to become a legend. 

Because for months and years now, we’ve banked on the potential of Lochte. We’ve set up elaborate hypotheticals in our heads – “Phelps vs. Lochte with fins” or “Phelps vs. Lochte in the 2016 Olympics in the 50 fly” or “Phelps vs. Lochte in a 4-hour workout.” But we’ve never seen them race head-to-head when something was on the line for both athletes. And that is what this week is. 

It’s finally important for both athletes. 

NBC touts this as a rivalry, part of its build-up to the 2012 London Olympics. It’s good drama, but we’re still only in the long, building second act. We have yet to see where this plot is heading, and what lies ahead. Ryan Lochte is interviewed by media and is asked, naturally, about Michael Phelps. Usually, he will answer simply and say they are great friends, great competitors, and that he wants to beat Phelps – which is a given. But the more this is talked about, the more we measure Ryan Lochte by Michael Phelps. 

In other words, the only way Ryan Lochte can take the next step is that he must slay the dragon -- Michael Phelps. A world record would help. A few gold medals will help. But we’ve created the match-up. A match-up will decide not how good Michael Phelps is (we already know) but how good Ryan Lochte is. 

The problem? Phelps has backed away. Phelps pre-emptivly scratched last year’s Pan Pacific 200IM. Avoided it. 

But this summer is different. It is the lead-up to the London Olympics. This year is more important of a year of training than the last months preceding the Olympics. The foundations for success are cemented in this summer. The wiring is installed. The concrete is poured. 

Phelps has his 14 Olympic gold medals. He knows how to build his Olympic foundation, more than anyone. The question is: Does Lochte? 

After weeks, months, and years of waiting, we have our Phelps vs. Lochte match-up. On paper, these two will collide, like two stars in the sky flying different orbits, hurdling through space, each to their own destination. Until now, we’ve only guessed at the trajectory of Lochte’s star. We’ve speculated. But this week we will have answers. 

The men’s 200IM is the Can’t Miss Race for obvious reasons. So much has been put on Ryan Lochte’s shoulders – the adoration, autographs, cries, and support. And so much has been forced on Michael Phelps’ shoulders – the criticism, guessing, whispering, and wondering. 

Soon, we will have our ending to the second act -- the long, anticipatory drama -- one that will launch us into our conclusion of this story next summer in the Phelps vs. Lochte saga. But, unlike dramatic movies, in sports, sometimes the endings are written long before the thrilling third act. 

One year before, to be exact.   This race will take place July 27, 2011, Shanghai, China.  At the FINA International Long Course World Championships.